Westrom: Long term food shortages are preventable

(St. Paul, MN) – The United States food supply is in dire straits unless the market opens up soon. As Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, I am well aware of the numerous reports of livestock farmers euthanizing thousands of animals in a day due to less demand from bulk buyers like restaurants. We need to quickly find the best solution to care for the vulnerable and high-risk individuals in our communities while keeping our markets running. Without some significant reopening measures soon, we may face a global food shortage and hospital closures-and that’s the last thing we need.

In Minnesota, the Governor uses a University of Minnesota model by epidemiologists to aid decisions for the state. It displays several stay at home scenarios and the impact each has on mortality and ICU bed needs. The Senate received an explanation of the numbers from epidemiologists at the University of Minnesota and economists from the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH). The modeling is now public information, though according to a recent press conference, other supplemental information is not yet released.

The scenario the Governor has chosen is 4.0, which has an active Stay at Home order until early May – now extended until May 18. Scenario 3.2 shows an active stay at home order until April 10. Both are followed by 21 days of businesses open with social distancing. What’s so amazing is that each has the same projected mortality rate and similar ICU bed needs. However, scenario 3.2 provides the ability to return to work much sooner and limits strict quarantine to vulnerable groups. The rest can return to work, exercising social distancing. Not only do we need to return people to their livelihoods and retain jobs now, but we must also prepare our economy for a possible resurgence of COVID-19 in the fall/winter.

The modeling produced at the University of Minnesota is questioned by many; it relies heavily on data from China and lacks consideration of population density, thus it is not infallible. Nevertheless, Minnesota is prepared for the numbers predicted in that model and has well-stocked hospitals. Even so, this situation is taking a financial toll on clinics and hospitals. It would be a tragedy if such deterioration by waiting results in the same facilities not being “financially healthy” enough to respond to an outbreak. The importance of reopening elective procedures is becoming clear, as there are countless stories of individual’s health becoming critical.

Food supply is also imperative to a healthy population. With processing plants like JBS shutting down in MN, Minnesota Pork Producer’s project that about 200,000 hogs will be euthanized very shortly. Farmers schedule hogs to mature for processing weekly, making this predicament difficult to stop. Egg processing plants, like Cargill in Big Lake, Minnesota, are also shutting down and chickens are being euthanized. These processors cannot quickly switch to grocery store sales because of packaging differences. Meanwhile, according to the USDA, the average price of a dozen eggs in a grocery store is up to three dollars a dozen.

These are just two examples of impacted markets. Planting, livestock, restaurants, and processors are all intertwined – when one goes down, they all suffer. President Trump recently issued the Defense Production Act to keep pork, beef, and poultry processing plants open, which may somewhat improve this bleak situation.

Not only is our food supply in danger, but our hospitals are suffering. As Dr. Daniel G. Murphy, who’s been working the Covid emergency rooms in The Bronx of New York, said in the New York Post, “…inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified.” We must move forward with reopening our economy while the vulnerable shelter in place. These measures will prevent long-term job loss and food shortages that could last years.

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